If a school has a budget in the 20- or 30-million range but has new facilities and pays its coach well while winning on the field, that could convince presidents. Can a school pay for what it costs to be successful in the AAC? For example, while East Carolina has a budget in the $50 million range, it’s behind much of the AAC in facilities and other factors, and the Pirates haven’t recreated the success they had in Conference USA.Ī commitment to football could help offset budget concerns. Most schools in the AAC are in the $40-60 million range and pay their football coach well over $1 million. One AD noted presidents like seeing larger athletic budgets from candidates. It’s not clear if any schools out there can actually increase that amount. When UConn left the league in 2020, Aresco said the AAC only wanted a replacement if it could increase the media rights deal with ESPN, which pays around $6 million but will certainly decrease soon with the three most popular schools on their way out.
And what matters to them could be more than just football success. Tulane blog Fear The Wave crunched the numbers and found the eight-team AAC’s average ESPN SP+ rating would still be higher than the Mountain West in four of the past five years.Ĭonversations with people outside the league indicate that the AAC still remains the place to be for most Group of 5 programs, and a number of schools have had informal conversations about it.īut what factors will be most important? Expansion isn’t a decision made by athletic directors. It still has the largest collection of athletic budgets in the Group of 5, but its four highest budgets will have left the league in the span of a few years.ĭespite the future departures, the remaining AAC may still be the strongest G5 football conference. The conference still stretches from Philadelphia to Tampa to Dallas. There are eight football-playing teams, and three of those are small private schools ( SMU, Tulane, Tulsa). The remaining AAC is a bit of a mishmash.
The AAC will look for two to four teams in expansion. As of now, the three departing schools can’t join the Big 12 until 2024, but that’s expected to be negotiable, allowing for a 2023 change. Aresco’s best defense was to play offense, but it wasn’t enough. But it became clear the remaining Big 12 teams would stay together and AAC schools would be targeted. If the Big 12 fell apart, the AAC was primed to benefit in a big way. When the Texas and Oklahoma news first broke, the American presented a proactive front, thinking it could pull in some Big 12 leftovers. “Our conference was targeted for exceeding expectations in a system that wasn’t designed to accommodate our success,” he said. What’s next for the American?Ĭommissioner Mike Aresco was often mocked for pushing the “Power 6” moniker, but in the end, a line from his statement on the Cincinnati/Houston/UCF departures was particularly true. Will that same pattern happen in the Group of 5 this time? Is everyone lining up to join the American? Could there be a redrawing of the maps to better fit geography? And could the Big 12 expand again and take more?Īfter conversations with more than a dozen industry sources, here are the questions and scenarios around Group of 5 conference realignment.
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